On previous pages it was made cleat that you should always stop after a win. Will you then always win with the
Martingale moneymanagement system ?
The answer was already shown. When starting with a bankroll of $100, and start betting $1, in the end
you can only afford to lose 5 times. When you lose the 6th time, you lost your entire bankroll.
On 'Wikipedia' there
is a statistical formula that gives the chance of 6 losses in any given number of spins.
The result is quite surprising and plotted below.
Although the chance of losing 6x in a row is only 1.8%, when you play 80 spins the chance of having had 6 losses in a
row has increased to 50%. The graph below actually shows that if you use this methodology for longer than 80 spins
you have more chance of going bankrupt that on winning anything !
What you also see is that initially - in the first 6 spins - you see you chance of winning increasing, as this
is the area where the progression is making sure you come out winning after 6 spins. However after 6 spins
the chance of going bankrupt slowly increases, spin by spin. Unfortunately on the longer run this
money management progression will not make you win.. only go bankrupt.
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